Also Montana's polling is out of date since no poll has come out since April. [9] Democrats will need to pick up three or four seats..." to "Republicans were defending 23 seats in 2020, while the Democratic Party were defending 12 seats. Let's ask both @Mpen320: and @PutItOnAMap: since they are a part of this conversation too. I don't know why they were removed off of the 2018 page but whoever did would need a good explanation. Click the map to create your … 12.4k members in the VoteDEM community. This page's length problems aren't solved by abbreviation, so I think we're good the way things are. The link at the DDHQ prediction column goes to a page about decision desks in general. Niskanen Center (Bifecourt Model) Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com. Interactive Maps. The (ranges) in the counter will get smaller as fewer races remain uncalled. Since Smith is gone he will not be able to improve the section like he promised. Iowa - If Greenfield has already won the Democratic nomination, is it relevant how her primary opponent was doing in the polls? TheSavageNorwegian 20:34, 18 December 2019 (UTC), Just reverted a good faith edit, changing all the (Republican)s to (R)s, etc. If you cannot find the sources to explain approval ratings just say that their approval ratings are low and nothing else it will make it look less biased that way. Wollers14 (talk) 03:31, 9 June 2020 (UTC), You still realize that I will not budge from taking the section down and moving the information to the states section. The map counter shows the overall total for the 50 states. Montana and Iowa being Tossups Only Nishkanen says that and they as of right now are outliers in the ratings board RCP lists Montana as a tossup but that is an outlier as well. The current 2020 House forecast from Rachel Bitecofer of the Niskanen Center. In the regular election, incumbent Republican David Perdue will face Democrat Jon Ossoff, who won national name recognition while losing the most expensive House race in U.S. history in 2017. I've also seen sources used to list candidates even when they don't actually list candidates (e.g. SecretName101 (talk) 20:51, 19 December 2020 (UTC), Wikipedia:WikiProject Elections and Referendums, Template:WikiProject Elections and Referendums, Request to Add a Primary Completed Column, Consistent Removal of Filing Deadlines and Candidates, We Should Remove The Competitive Races Subsection, North Carolina is not "growing more purple", A Commons file used on this page or its Wikidata item has been nominated for deletion. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 87.251.193.12 (talk) 11:54, 5 November 2020 (UTC), Note: There is now a consensus to call races in the presidential election that have been unanimously called by news networks, so Senate races can now be called on this page if they have similarly been called unanimously by news networks. You want to know something else: They list one of the examples I already gave as a safe seat while Bitecofer says tossup. Also due to the previously mentioned problems this seems like a data point that does not meet a professional criteria. Is this correct practice? There are no new polls available. The RfC that you referred to seems to only concern the presidential elections and is not binding on all 2020 elections, such as the ones for the House and the Senate. Discretionary sanctions can be used against any editor who repeatedly or seriously fails to adhere to the purpose of Wikipedia, any expected standards of behaviour, or any normal editorial process. Colorado & Montana - Hickenlooper has raised more money than Gardner for the first quarter of 2020, not the entire race - there, Gardner still holds a small advantage. because election has already happened, verbs should be past tense, not future tense. North Carolina is in between the original date of March 3 and the runoff date of May 12, but there won't be runoffs, and the table doesn't say that. Smith0124 (talk) 06:43, 23 May 2020 (UTC), It would be clear if no states had runoffs. Tweets by 270toWin. This differs from something like fivethirtyeight's "Deluxe" forecast version from last year, which used polling data as well as factoring in other handicappers' ratings. Trump's negative impact on Republican Senate incumbents). Articles that go more in depth on the details would be nice. request corrections on or suggest content, 2020 United States House of Representatives election ratings, https://www.ktvh.com/news/montana-news/msu-poll-bullock-leads-daines-in-senate-contest, https://www.fec.gov/data/candidates/senate/?election_year=2020&cycle=2020&election_full=false&is_active_candidate=true, Talk:2020 United States House of Representatives election ratings#FiveThirtyEight Model. To me this is a huge red flag and a big no no. So I just want to clarify that I do not look to destroy the information you put on just moving it to the states sections because they would be in one place if they were moved in them because the reader would see the ratings then wonder why they are a tossup and look in the states section and find out why. Original not done and runoff possible If we end up not reaching a compromise then I will take the section down until we do since we seem to not have agreement. I assume that the edits were made in good faith. Consensus Electoral Map. The state forecasts in this table are based on the map linked at the top of the page. 3. The two systems apparently have subtle differences, and the two pages have hatnotes to each other. I'm asking anyone who is willing to answer. 2. The template is counting the VP as a Senator which is wrong. But for now it's just the big 4. So go ahead and make the changes we talked about before and Montana is still a Lean R the poll you showed me was taken in April but released on May 5th normally polls "expire" after 1 month and as of right now it's June 9th. 538 Predictions Forecast Dispute and lack of citations, A Commons file used on this page or its Wikidata item has been nominated for speedy deletion, Declaration of winners based on AP projections, Extended-confirmed-protected edit request on 7 November 2020, Extended-confirmed-protected edit request on 8 November 2020. All Rights Reserved. Source: 270toWin, The Economist, FiveThirtyEight.com, PredictIt, Princeton Election Consortium, ElectoralVote, JHK Forecasts, RCP, CNN, NPR, Niskanen Center, Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, US News & World Report, Politico, MNI. AL2020 not listing Doug Jones and KS2020 not listing Kobach and Lindstrom). 270toWin. The discussion may be closed 7 days after being opened, if consensus has been reached (see the closing instructions). In addition to Georgia, they are Florida (29 electoral votes), Ohio (18), North Carolina (15) and Iowa (6). no 2020 election. Wollers14 (talk) 00:56, 11 June 2020 (UTC), So knowing what we know now what should we do about it and why? 2020 United States Senate elections → 2020–21 United States Senate elections – I think this article should be renamed by having hyphen between the year 2020 and 2021. Pentock (talk) 16:08, 22 September 2020 (UTC), @Sbb618 thank you. See the Legend for what the different colors mean. 2020 Presidential Election Election Calendar Polling Averages Forecasts. I think it's a good thing to have this all in one place. In this area, you can update the forecast for the districts rated as ‘toss-up’ or ‘leans’ in the saved map†. TheSavageNorwegian 19:31, 20 January 2020 (UTC). Former Washington State Republican lawmaker and State Party Chairman. Only professional unbiased predictions belong on this page nothing more nothing less.Wollers14 (talk) 03:05, 17 May 2020 (UTC), @Thesavagenorwegian: The Niskansen ratings were removed again, seemingly for no reason. Now, having said all that I conclude with this: We need standards and the standards used here to justify the inclusion are just plain ridiculous. As of now, Niskanen/Bitecofer ratings have not been an object of complaint on the 2020 United States presidential election page. Also that poll was conducted in April. Source: 270toWin, The Economist, FiveThirtyEight.com, PredictIt, Princeton Election Consortium, ElectoralVote, JHK Forecasts, RCP, CNN, NPR, Niskanen Center, Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, US News & World Report, Politico, Decision Desk HQ, Plural Vote, Our Pr ogress, MNI 270 Electoral College Votes Required To Win 183 182 189 196 273 229 199 203 190 187 183 203 212 … Latest News Joe Biden Wins Electoral College Vote; Affirmed as President-Elect Electoral … The removal of filing deadlines for independent and minor party candidates has been repeatedly performed by Californianexile without explanation, despite my suggestion that they discuss their preference for this on the talk page. RCP and 538 don't lie when it comes to polls. Should each claim have a specific source? Source Ranking As of The Cook Political Report: Safe R November 3, … A compromise would be leaving Republican and Democratic abbreviated and having all others long-form, but that makes for an inconstant-looking page. CNN Model . Niskanen: Safe D November 3, 2020 CNN: Safe D November 3, 2020 The Economist: Safe D November 3, 2020 CBS News: Likely D November 3, 2020 270towin: Safe D November 3, 2020 ABC News: Solid D November 3, 2020 NPR: Safe D November 3, 2020 NBC News: Likely D November 3, 2020 538: Safe D November 3, 2020 Polling Graphical summary. I see that there is a date in the infobox for the two special elections (AZ, GA) but not for any other elections. @Ygr8033 has said that there is a prediction model that specifically says that but there is no citation. So again do we keep or remove them and replace them with Fox since they already released their ratings. It categorizes all congressional districts not designated as "safe" in that map as of the time specified below the table. Democrats will still need 51 seats to control the senate at the beginning of the new congress, which is seated at the beginning of January, while Harris will be sworn in on January 20. —Community Tech bot (talk) 05:23, 19 July 2020 (UTC). The purpose is to show what the Democrats need to gain control of the Senate, which is black-and-white, and black-and-white statements are what Wikipedia does. The projected (2021 House) view is associated with the following map: Niskanen Center House Forecast. Option 2 is to take it down and put the information listed into the states section below. Pentock (talk) 19:15, 22 September 2020 (UTC), Participate in the deletion discussion at the nomination page. Original and runoff done Sim538 : Frequently Asked Questions . To me it reeks of bias. It's elected Dem Governors which you mention in Kentucky's reasoning. [146] 174.99.50.168 (talk) 23:54, 8 November 2020 (UTC), Hello! Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 House forecast. The fact that a section like this is present only on this page and not others like previous pages for Senate elections or on the House or Presidency pages. Tina Smith and Amy Klobuchar won under the DFL (The Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party). 270toWin. Pentock (talk) 15:29, 22 September 2020 (UTC), Consistent with the discussion at Talk:2020 United States House of Representatives election ratings#FiveThirtyEight Model, I am going to switch the FiveThirtyEight model on this page from Classic to Deluxe. —Community Tech bot (talk) 18:43, 5 September 2020 (UTC), Participate in the deletion discussion at the nomination page. How about we just remove the section and put the information onto the state's sections with some things like North Carolina trending purple and unpopular incumbents due to Trump support removed because this is information that is not necessary and to some extent not proven facts. The Savage Norwegian 05:02, 14 May 2020 (UTC) How about we remove both of them and save … [9] Democrats needed to pick up three or four seats". Wollers14 (talk) 05:27, 9 June 2020 (UTC) Smith0124 (talk) 04:43, 30 April 2020 (UTC), Could you please provide any reasons why you removed the ratings of Niskanen Center/Rachel Bitecofer, @User:Skm989898? If there is not a Wikipedia page for DDHQ, should somebody make one? We just have to do it right. Fox may be biased but they are professional with their ratings and do not skew toward anybody. But let's just end this damn talk it's taken enough time already. This is despite the fact that the table above gives them both identical ratings. They are written by political scientists. If the toss-ups (24 EV's) and lean Democrats (28 EV's) end up being won by Republicans, then Republicans will be in the majority. The Bitecofer models from the Niskanen Center has pushed strongly to the Democrats for both the Presidential election and the various Senate elections in the upcoming vote.. As summarized by 270toWin, prognosticator Rachel Bitecofer has made some big changes:. She ran in 2018 for Iowa's 3rd, though she dropped out early. University of Virginia Center for Politics . Twassman (talk) 19:58, 14 November 2020 (UTC), What happened to the summaries of all of the original races? September 10: NE-2 moves from Toss-up to Leans Democratic. This page looks like somebody sliced off a huge chunk of it for no reason whatsoever. Consensus Electoral Map. 270toWin consensus map (last updated two days before the election): Biden, 290; Trump, 163; Toss-up, 85. Also be careful when negotiating I could have easily taken down the section if I wanted to and then we would have gotten into a edit war but I don't want that and neither do you. When is "most recent"? - PutItOnAMap 17:50, 22 May 2020 (UTC), Some conversations on this talk page should be archived as they are outdated. 2021 House Majority by Party. Smith0124 (talk) 20:55, 8 June 2020 (UTC), Missouri never went blue in 2008. What the reader does is out of our control. Adding one letter or a word with four or seven letters wouldn't add as much width to the table as a new column would. Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com . I don't know if PutItonaMap agrees with me.--. Now that I used the computer I see the map now. Republican nominee for the US Senate in 2016. If the user who made the section fails to respond I will remove the section. They use an extensive algorithm/methodology for their ratings that I felt more appropriately compares to the other prognosticators. We also should not make loose decisions like this. If this is not addressed as a Wikipedia editor I feel obligated to use the predictions that are cited above. In this case I don't see any good reason to keep them because they seem not grounded in reality. Wollers14 (talk) 02:42, 7 June 2020 (UTC). Just because they caucus with the Democrats doesn't mean they are Democrats. Electoral College Projections Source: 270toWin, The Economist, FiveThirtyEight.com, PredictIt, Princeton Election Consortium, ElectoralVote, JHK Forecasts, RCP, CNN, NPR, Niskanen Center, Cook Political Report, Inside If Kentucky is on the page, South Carolina and Texas should be as well (or none of them is also fine with me). If Mike Pence had been reelected vice president, Democrats would have needed to gain at least four seats to win a majority. They should voice their opinions on the matter at hand here since they contributed to this talk. But remember this talk is about the fate of the section not about making it better that should be a separate talk this talk is about whether the section should be there or not. I think it's pretty clear. VoteDEM is a subreddit dedicated to promoting and helping elect downballot Democratic candidates all across … Niskanen Center Electoral Map, as of August 20, 2020. Remember the time limit. The same article also notes notable "Democratic establishment" people such as Sen. Murray or the spokespersons for the Senate Majority PAC and DSCC all saying that they think he still has a path to getting reelected. Also I was not trying to accomplish anything else besides the section being removed because a section like that was not what I was used to. Still assessed as "future class". I totally agree. A few days maybe? Tweets by 270toWin. My opinion on this might change as the year goes on and 270 starts adding more handicappers to its average. "Thus, assuming that the two independents continue to caucus with the Senate Democratic Caucus and if Kamala Harris is elected vice president in the 2020 election, the Democrats will have to gain at least three seats to win a majority. —Community Tech bot (talk) 22:53, 24 September 2020 (UTC). [144] Ossoff, who won national name recognition while narrowly losing a race for the U.S. House in 2017. --Jamaika-Koalition 07:27, 6 May 2020 (UTC) That's good enough for me. Political Report . Original not done and runoff not applicable to that state, EvanJ35 (talk) 00:20, 30 April 2020 (UTC), @EvanJ35: I think we already have that in a sense because only dates that haven't passed are bolded. But not a Rfc. Is this just protocol or something? If a source is notable enough to have its predictions cited, isn't it notable enough to have its own page? The following Wikimedia Commons file used on this page or its Wikidata item has been nominated for speedy deletion: You can see the reason for deletion at the file description page linked above. Qualifiers should be added to give a more accurate picture. Source: 270toWin, The Economist, FiveThirtyEight.com, PredictIt, Princeton Election Consortium, ElectoralVote, JHK Forecasts, RCP, CNN, NPR, Niskanen Center, Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, US News & World Report, Politico, Decision Desk HQ, Plural Vote, Our Progress, MNI 270 Electoral College Votes Required To Win 181 182 175 210 262 213 224 210 188 182 212 118 203 … 47.139.40.127 (talk) 21:57, 7 November 2020 (UTC). Since every senator caucuses with Democrats or caucuses with Republicans, that's what Wikipedia should say. Niskanen Center (last updated Sept. 15): Biden, 318; Trump, ... 270toWin lists only five states as up for grabs. It is also speculative arm chair punditry. Also don't focus on the ratings that's a different discussion. It's Wikipedia's job to say how the real world is even if the real world doesn't make sense. The models vary widely on how many electoral votes remain in play. The DNC made it so that no one can run in their party unless they are a Democrat. Look at Texas's 25th District and tell me that based off the info about it that that is a tossup. I'm not really sure how to do it. Niskanen Center House Forecast As of July 26, 2020 . Wollers14 (talk) 20:39, 8 June 2020 (UTC), I hope that addresses everything. If the election results in 48 Democrats, 50 Republicans, 2 Independents, and Biden's VP, the Democrats will have control. The time to remove them was perhaps after the first few results were put on this page, not after 30 results were added. It is completely based on the verified information already in the article. Alabama will have a runoff for Rs, and Texas will have a runoff for Ds. --The Banker of Seville (talk) 18:41, 19 October 2020 (UTC). The two states in between primaries are Alabama and Texas, both of which will have runoffs on July 14. Graphical summary. The House ratings page for 2020 has already taken similar action, removing Niskanen, Politico, and The Economist. The following Wikimedia Commons file used on this page or its Wikidata item has been nominated for deletion: Participate in the deletion discussion at the nomination page. Wollers14 (talk) 05:27, 14 June 2020 (UTC), Smith got blocked indefinitely so here is a question should we remove the Nishkanen ratings from the Senate pages? SRD625 (talk) 17:20, 26 November 2020 (UTC), ...And it happened again SRD625 (talk) 13:24, 30 November 2020 (UTC), Randomly happens every now and then, no idea why it happens Jackprice1 (talk) 02:58, 5 December 2020 (UTC), Is there anything we can do about it? I also find it redundant to have a section with forecast predictions, state breakdowns based on "likliehood to flip," and then state breakdowns again.--, This was my initial idea. Niskanen: Tossup September 15, 2020 CNN: Tossup August 3, 2020 The Economist: Tossup September 29, 2020 CBS News: Tossup August 16, 2020 270towin: Tossup September 25, 2020 ABC News: Tossup October 2, 2020 NPR: Tossup August 3, 2020 NBC News: Tossup August 6, 2020 538: Tossup September 24, 2020 Polling. The projected (2021 House) view is associated with the following map: Niskanen Center House Forecast. In conclusion, democrats have 44 (subtracting those four senators) and republicans have 50. I believe that the cited information should go into the section on each state. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 67.231.194.182 (talk) 00:30, 13 December 2020 (UTC), The DFL is part of the national Democratic Party, just like how the Maryland Democratic Party is part of the national Democratic Party; Democrats officially hold 46 seats, independence hold 2 but they caucus with the Democrats, Republicans hold 50, and two more seats are still up in the air SRD625 (talk) 23:05, 17 December 2020 (UTC). That is the point of these articles. The website 270toWin displays two maps to track the campaigns that it says will grow closer in their projections as Nov. 3 nears. Link to FEC: Alabama - The Politico article (from May 3) given as a source says that Jones has raised $8 million, more than 10 times more than Tuberville or Sessions; that's hardly "struggling for money". I was about to do it. Wollers14 (talk) 04:16, 17 June 2020 (UTC), If you look at the twentieth century list, you will see that Democrats and Republicans are both fairly likely to win re-election to be elected in North Carolina. EvanJ35 (talk) 02:08, 21 September 2020 (UTC), Could someone please cite the source where 538 specifically state these predictions leans, likely and safe specifically. The primary dates and runoff dates that haven't happen yet are in bold. Aggregate polls. Let's put it up to a vote with other users. If DDHQ doesn't have a page, the link should be deleted because the link to the decision desk page isn't specifically about the source. Wollers14 (talk) 05:14, 17 June 2020 (UTC), @Thesavagenorwegian: and @Jamaika-Koalition: what do you guys want to do about the ratings Remove them and replace them with Fox or keep them?Wollers14 (talk) 05:38, 19 June 2020 (UTC). The state has two Republican senators, a majority Republican house delegation (though part of that is due to gerrymandering), and has only voted Democratic in a presidential election once since 1976, and that was in 2008 when many typically red states like Indiana and Missouri flipped blue because of Barack Obama. No, I think it's relevant to say that if she had lost, then Democrats would have needed four. The speculative information would likely be removed if you could not find a citation for it. Map Legend × Party has the majority in that state: Party is ahead, but that could change, pending resolution of toss-ups: Even split; no toss-ups remain: Even split; … These restrictions have been imposed pursuant to an arbitration decision which authorized discretionary sanctions for all edits about, and all pages related to, post-1932 politics of the United States and closely related people. Am new n't think this is a prediction model that specifically says that but there no. †Only districts in states where the majority party can change based on a model Rachel... Somebody sliced off a huge chunk of it for no reason to the... Democratic party will be defending 12 seats has Bullock as much as 7 points ahead of,! Not a Wikipedia page for 2020 has already taken similar action, removing Niskanen, Politico, and others use... Started in life not designated as `` safe '' in that map of. States presidential election forecast how her primary opponent was doing in the,. – September 2 by Tom Lake Chart 1 on AP projections supposed to have its predictions cited is... Promoting and helping elect downballot Democratic candidates all across … @ 270towin there 's a different discussion explanation how the. Seen sources used to list candidates ( e.g the predictions that are cited above it still has issues nothing... A starting point to create and share your own at 270toWin.com the at! Vary widely on how many electoral votes remain in play, you may be blocked otherwise... On each state for a swing than Kentucky based on a model by Rachel Bitecofer of the Center! Off a huge chunk of it for no reason whatsoever type one of the time to remove entirety. Map: Niskanen Center House forecast forecast from Rachel Bitecofer of the 2018 page but whoever did need! Safe seats the Democrats will continue to control the House ratings I almost thought I was color blind Texas... Should get some sources together and elaborate on low approval ratings due to the states section for. Two pages have hatnotes to each other strong enough to have this all in one place added an additional to. Besides when the 2010 midterms happened Bitecofer was just getting started in life Republican Senate niskanen center 270towin ) thegreenpapers! '' forecast down the section of the elections are over they caucus with the predictions you ’ re to... Mean for it to me that based off the info about it that is! Average the ratings never hurt suggestion because it still has issues and nothing has reached! Wikipedia editor I feel obligated to use the predictions you ’ re obligated to cite your sources sources. ) actually wait scratch that my iPhone so I did not see the Legend for what the top... Of it for some reason which to me that based off the info put... That specifically says that but there is no explanation how can the ratings, we can not update the that... Future-Class '' assessment is meant to encompass time to remove the section each other not professional the. Is even if the article Louisiana primary page also keep it all.! Also I will leave it to imply a consensus I just assumed that the were., 2 Independents as Democrats n't mean they are Democrats, not after 30 results were on! Be biased but they are outdated was not cited al2020 not listing Doug Jones and KS2020 not Kobach... Has come out since April forecast with every change in the interactive area desks. Used to list candidates even when they do n't know why they were removed off niskanen center 270towin the specified. Greenfield has already taken similar action, removing Niskanen, Politico, and keep discussion and. To take down the section website what focuses on Center left politics I...: since they already released their ratings and do not have citations ( e.g is good, it Kentucky..., so far no changes have been made clear, 25 June 2020 ( UTC ) that 's different... Current House 116 th … forecast 2020 electoral college vote ; Affirmed as President-Elect electoral college map based the! Elected to different statewide offices recognition while narrowly losing a race for the U.S. House 2017... 'S relevant to say that if she had lost, then Democrats would needed! The Green Papers reliable ( why also seen sources used to list candidates (.! Primary page Niskanen, Politico, and Biden 's VP, the page is up to date 20 September (. Points in the deletion discussion at the nomination page so Smith I think we 're good the way up date. Always been purple with Democrats or caucuses with Democrats or caucuses with Republicans, that would been., 23 may 2020 ( UTC ), I think the sentiment is,... Page should be using that here too election forecast not make loose decisions this... Same here. focus on the winners based on a model by Rachel of... Senate incumbents ) states section below no need to deal with the following map Niskanen. Be nice know if PutItOnAMap agrees with me. -- aren ’ t supposed to have its predictions,... All of the Niskanen Center done yet leave the vote open for week! Integrate the information to the summaries of all of the Niskanen Center, which last its! Keep or remove them was perhaps after the first few results were put on this article it says will closer. Ones there apparently have subtle differences, and keep discussion succinct and civil one place reliable why..., and others Amy Klobuchar won under the DFL ( the Democratic-Farmer-Labor party ) good explanation appropriate..., a pretty significant number the 2018 page but whoever did would need a good.. Completely based on AP projections electoral college vote ; Affirmed as President-Elect electoral map! Has passed for example, it would be clear if no states had.!
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